Back

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness's content profile, based on 16 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.04% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Patterns of maternal transport in a state with levels of maternal care and no formal perinatal regions

Li, J.; Steimle, L. N.; Carrel, M.; Byrd, R. A.; Radke, S. M.

2026-04-22 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351263 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
6.7%
Show abstract

PurposeTo characterize maternal transport patterns in Iowa, a state with levels of maternal care and without formal perinatal regions, and assess whether transport decisions reflect efficient, risk-appropriate coordination. MethodsWe analyzed 2010-2023 Iowa birth records, which included 2,251 maternal transports between obstetric facilities across 106 unique routes. We characterized transport patterns and applied a community detection algorithm to identify "communities" of obstetric facilities that disproportionately transport among themselves. FindingsSuburban and rural counties have elevated transport rates compared to urban counties. 2,189 transports (97%) were from lower-to higher-level facilities. Among these, 2,037 (93%) were to Level III tertiary care centers. 567 transports (25.2%) bypassed a closer facility offering an equivalent or higher level of care than its destination facility. Health system affiliation was associated with bypassing transport, indicating potential organizational rather than purely geographic drivers of transport decisions. Three "communities" of obstetric facilities largely shaped by geographic proximity were identified. ConclusionsAlthough Iowa does not have formal perinatal regions, patterns of maternal transport are mostly in line with three de facto regions. Some potential inefficiencies were identified, such as obstetric facilities transporting to a farther facility when a closer facility offered the same level of care or higher. These findings may help identify opportunities to enhance care coordination among obstetric facilities, optimize maternal transport networks, and improve regionalization of maternal care.

2
Drivers and barriers to the implementation of the school feeding values-based food procurement guidelines and ultra-processed food restrictions

Fernandes Davies, V.; Perrut, I.; Thow, A.-M.; Duran, A. C.

2026-04-24 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351508 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
2.8%
Show abstract

Objective: To investigate in the National School Feeding Program (PNAE) the local level drivers and barriers to the implementation of four guidelines: the banning of sugary drinks; restrictions on the procurement of processed and ultra-processed foods; the mandatory increase in weekly servings of fruits and vegetables offered to students; and mandatory direct procurement from family farmers. Design: Qualitative study that used semi-structured interviews. Street level bureaucracy theory informed the theoretical framework and thematic analysis. Setting: Brazilian municipalities, across the country five geographic regions (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Midwest). Participants: Stakeholders (e.g. nutritionists, school cooks, and food procurement managers) involved in the local implementation of the PNAE program across the country. Results: Ninety stakeholders were interviewed. Stakeholders reported having autonomy to perform their activities, collaboration and support from other members within the local government and food providers, adequate infrastructure such as a well-equipped kitchens, the availability of trained personnel, and political commitment as drivers for optimum program implementation. Reported barriers included lack of support and resistance to change among cooks, teachers and parents; insufficient physical and human resources; and limited political commitment. When barriers outweighed drivers, interviewees reported adapting their practices, often in restrictive ways that could compromise the implementation of the program. Conclusions: Drivers and barriers to local PNAE implementation were generally similar across studied municipalities, although their magnitude varied. In contexts of greater economic vulnerability and fiscal constraint, additional support and targeted actions from the federal government may be required to strengthen local implementation

3
Accessibility and regional disparities in nationwide 24-hour home medical care: A quantitative evaluation using the enhanced two-step floating catchment area method

Egashira, Y.; Watanabe, R.

2026-04-20 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.18.26351162 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
2.7%
Show abstract

With Japans rapidly aging population, demand for home healthcare is projected to increase by 62% by 2040. This study quantitatively evaluated accessibility to 24-hour home healthcare and regional disparities across all 335 secondary medical areas (SMAs) in Japan using the Enhanced Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (E2SFCA) method. We conducted a nationwide cross-sectional study analyzing approximately 430,000 population points at 500-meter mesh resolution. The E2SFCA integrated demand (age-adjusted population), supply (24-hour home care support clinics and hospitals), and transportation (road networks). Accessibility scores (ASs) and Gini coefficients were calculated for each SMA. Wards hierarchical cluster analysis classified regional types, and multiple regression based on the Penchansky and Thomas five-dimensional access framework identified factors associated with the median AS (ASM) and Gini coefficient. The median ASM was 45.71 (0.00-153.49), and the median Gini coefficient was 0.33 (0.06-0.93). Cluster analysis identified six types ranked by descending ASM, from C1 (high access, equitable; n = 48) to C6 (access desert; n = 23). C6 had a median ASM of 0.00 and Gini coefficient of 0.74, indicating virtually no access within a 30-minute catchment. Home-visit standardized claim ratios, used as external validation, declined monotonically from C1 (125.6) to C6 (17.6). For ASM, 24-hour visiting nursing stations ({beta} = +0.369) and clinic physicians ({beta} = +0.342) showed the strongest positive associations, with non-residential area negatively associated ({beta} = -0.273). For the Gini coefficient, non-residential area showed the strongest positive association ({beta} = +0.523). Taxable income per taxpayer was not significantly associated with either outcome. Non-residential area was associated with both lower accessibility and greater intra-regional inequality, suggesting that geographic constraints may limit the effectiveness of resource investment alone. Uniform nationwide implementation of policies shifting care from long-term care beds to home healthcare may not be feasible; region-specific approaches considering geographic characteristics are necessary.

4
Implementation of SMS and voice message reminders to reduce childhood immunization dropout rate in urban settings: A Pilot Study in Lome-Togo in 2026

Badarou, S.; Attah, K. M.; Gounon, K. H.; Dali, A. S.; Sire, X. R.; Dia, E. C.

2026-04-20 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.19.26350799 medRxiv
Top 0.5%
1.9%
Show abstract

ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the effectiveness of SMS and voice message reminders in reducing the dropout rate in Lome-Togo, in 2026. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study between October 2025 and March 2026 in the Grand Lome region. The intervention consisted of an integrated digital system used by health facilities to send automated SMS. Categorical variables were described in terms of frequency and proportion; Fishers exact test was used to compare proportions. Quantitative variables were described by their means accompanied by their standard deviation; the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare means. The significance level for statistical tests was set at 5%. ResultsA total of 30 health facilities were included. Seventy percent (70.0%) of the health facilities used messages associated with calls. Ninety percent (90.0%) of participants found the reminders useful, and 60.0% reported an improvement in Expanded Program on Immunization services related to their use. Among participants who received a reminder, 51.0% kept their vaccination appointments. The Penta 1/3 dropout rate decreased from 3.2% before the intervention to 1.3% (p < 0.001). Among the 323 parents of children included, only 20.74% reported receiving a reminder by phone. Sixty-point-five percent (60.5%) preferred to receive both text messages and voice calls. ConclusionThis study demonstrates the operational feasibility of an SMS/call-based reminder system in reducing dropout rate for childhood vaccination in Togo.

5
The Evolution and Equity of Chinas Pharmacist Workforce in Healthcare Institutions: A Provincial Panel Data Analysis, 2007-2023 Evolution and equity of China's pharmacist workforce

xia, y.; Sun, L.; Zhao, Y.

2026-04-23 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351514 medRxiv
Top 0.6%
1.8%
Show abstract

Background: China has implemented policies to strengthen its pharmacist workforce since the 2009 healthcare reform, yet a comprehensive evaluation of their long-term systemic effects is lacking. Objective: To systematically analyze the evolution of Chinas pharmacist workforce in healthcare institutions from 2007 to 2023 across four dimensions: quantity, quality, structure, and distribution, providing an empirical foundation for policy optimization. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using longitudinal data from the China Health Statistics Yearbooks. Trends were delineated via descriptive statistics. Equity and spatial evolution were assessed using the Gini coefficient, Theil index decomposition, and spatial autocorrelation analyses (Global Morans I and hotspot analysis). Results: From 2007 to 2023, the total number of pharmacists increased from 357,700 to 569,500 (average annual growth: 2.2%). This growth lagged behind physicians (4.6%) and nurses (7.4%), causing the pharmacist-to-physician ratio to decline from 1:5.15 to 1:8.39. The workforce showed trends of feminization (female proportion rose from 59.7% to 70.8%) and aging. While quality improved, 51.1% still held an associate degree or below, and only 6.6% held senior titles. Equity analysis revealed the provincial Gini coefficient improved from 0.145 to 0.093. Theil index decomposition confirmed intra-provincial disparities as the primary inequality driver. Spatial analysis showed a non-significant global Morans I by 2023 (0.154, P*>0.05), down from 0.254 (P<0.01) in 2007. Hotspot analysis confirmed this transition, revealing a contraction of high-confidence clusters and a trend toward balanced distribution. Conclusions: China has made measurable progress in expanding pharmacist workforce size and improving inter-provincial equity since 2007. However, persistent structural challenges remain: relative workforce contraction compared to other health professions, an aging demographic, a shortage of senior talent, and significant intra-provincial inequity. Future policies must prioritize optimizing workforce structure and enhancing clinical service capabilities to catalyze a shift toward patient-centered pharmaceutical care.

6
Analyzing Access to Surgical Services in Central Equatoria State, South Sudan: A Baseline Cross-Sectional Assessment to Inform National Surgical Policy and Planning

Deng, M. D. A.; Alayande, B. T.; Sheferaw, E. D.; Ngutete Mukundwa, P.; Fofanah, T.; Peter, M. B.; Kuron, D.; Bekele, A.; Dau, A. D.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351353 medRxiv
Top 0.7%
1.7%
Show abstract

BackgroundAccess to safe, equitable, and affordable surgical and anesthesia care is critical to reducing the burden of surgical diseases in Africa. To understand the state of access in South Sudan, we conducted a baseline assessment of surgical services in Central Equatoria State (CES) in May 2024. ObjectivesThis study aimed to survey public healthcare facilities in CES capable of providing essential surgical services. We used the capacity to perform cesarean section, laparotomy, and open fracture management--Bellwether procedures--as a proxy for assessing workforce, infrastructure, financing, information management, and service delivery. MethodsWe used a validated and contextualized Surgical Assessment Tool developed by the Harvard Program on Global Surgery and Social Change and the World Health Organization. Data were collected at the facility level and summarized descriptively using percentages, means (standard deviations), medians (minimum, maximum), and visualized in graphs, charts, and tables. ResultsAll three public health facilities assessed could perform Bellwether procedures for their catchment populations. However, workforce availability, financing, and surgical infrastructure were major constraints. The surgical workforce density was 2.27 surgical, anesthesia, and obstetric specialists per 100,000 population. Specialized procedures--such as repair of cleft lip and palate, clubfoot, and hydrocephalus shunt--were unavailable at all sites. None had magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines. The total average annual facility budget was $918,850, ranging from $3,960 to $800,000 at the teaching hospital--insufficient for proper operations. ConclusionWhile Bellwether procedures are routinely performed, access to quality and affordable care is compromised by deficits in workforce, financing, and infrastructure. We recommend that the Ministry of Health scale this survey nationally and develop a surgical policy and strategic plan focused on improving infrastructure, workforce, and financing for surgical and anesthesia care in South Sudan.

7
Why Patients Choose Spiritual Healers, Alternative Medicine, and Unqualified Practitioners Before Formal Medical Care: An Exploratory Mixed Methods Study in Peri-Urban and Rural Faisalabad, Pakistan

Hamid, S.; Muneez, M.; Saleem, S.

2026-04-24 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351601 medRxiv
Top 0.7%
1.7%
Show abstract

ABSTRACT Background Before obtaining professional medical care, many people in peri-urban and rural Pakistan contact herbalists, spiritual healers, and unlicensed caregivers. This study examined the social, economic, and cultural factors influencing the use of informal care by analysing the health-seeking behaviours of individuals in the Faisalabad District. Methods An exploratory mixed-methods study was conducted in Makkuana and the surrounding villages of Faisalabad District, Punjab. The quantitative component involved a cross-sectional survey of 69 adults using a structured questionnaire adapted from the I-CAM-Q. The qualitative component comprised twelve in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions. Descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis were used for quantitative data. Thematic analysis, guided by the Health Belief Model and Andersen's Behavioural Model, was applied to qualitative data. Results The mean age of participants was 40.4 years; 62.3% were female, and 79.7% had monthly household incomes below PKR 60,000. Of the 69 participants, 68 (98.6%) sought care from an informal provider first, most commonly an unqualified practitioner (50.7%), herbal practitioner (29.0%), or homeopath (17.4%). Trust was the leading reason for provider choice (43.5%), followed by proximity (24.6%) and low cost (15.9%). Complications were reported by 21.7% of participants, and 39.1% later required formal care for the same illness. Eight qualitative themes emerged: structural and economic barriers to formal care; proximity and convenience as determinants of informal care; trust, familiarity, and social networks; cultural and religious normalisation of traditional practices; poor doctor-patient communication in formal settings; perceived safety and naturalness of alternative remedies; awareness deficits about provider qualifications; and treatment-related harm and delayed escalation to formal care. Conclusion Informal health care seeking is nearly universal in this community, driven by intersecting economic, structural, cultural, and interpersonal factors. Enhancing primary care affordability, accessibility, and the quality of provider-patient communication together with culturally sensitive health literacy programs, is essential to redirect care seeking toward qualified providers.

8
Predicting Depressive Symptoms Among Reproductive-Aged Women in Bangladesh Using Bagging Ensemble Machine Learning on Imbalanced Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2022 Data

Mahmud, S.; Akter, M. S.; Ahamed, B.; Rahman, A. E.; El Arifeen, S.; Hossain, A. T.

2026-04-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351445 medRxiv
Top 1%
1.2%
Show abstract

Background Depressive symptoms among reproductive-aged women represent a major public health concern in low- and middle-income countries, yet systematic screening remains limited. In most population survey datasets, the low prevalence of depression results in severe class imbalance, which challenges conventional machine learning models. Therefore, we develop and evaluate a bagging-based ensemble machine learning framework to predict depressive symptoms among reproductive-aged women using highly imbalanced Bangladesh demographic and health survey (BDHS) 2022 data. Methods The sample comprised women aged 15-49 years drawn from BDHS 2022 data. Depressive symptoms were defined using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9 [&ge;]10). Candidate predictors were drawn from sociodemographic, reproductive, nutritional, psychosocial, healthcare access, and environmental domains. Feature selection was performed using Elastic Net (EN), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost model. Five classifiers (EN, RF, Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM)) were trained using both oversampling-based approaches and the proposed ensemble framework. Model performance was evaluated on an independent test set using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, and the normalized Matthews correlation coefficient (normMCC). Results Approximately 4.8% of women were identified with depressive symptoms. The proposed bagging ensemble framework consistently achieved more balanced predictive performance than oversampling-based models. Average normMCC improved from 0.540 (oversampling) to 0.557 (ensemble). RF and GBM ensembles demonstrated notable improvements in identifying depressive cases, while the EN ensemble achieved the highest overall performance and sensitivity. Threshold optimization yielded stable normMCC across models, indicating robust trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions Bagging-based ensemble learning provides a more robust and balanced approach than synthetic oversampling for predicting depressive symptoms in highly imbalanced population survey data. This approach has important implications for improving early identification and population-level mental health surveillance in resource-constrained settings.

9
Temporal features of the built environment and associations with drowning mortality: A global satellite-based analysis

Essex, R.; Lim, S.; Jagnoor, J.

2026-04-21 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.19.26351237 medRxiv
Top 1%
1.2%
Show abstract

BackgroundDrowning remains a major global public health challenge. This study examined whether the timing and trajectories of urbanisation--beyond the current built environment--are associated with subnational drowning mortality. MethodsWe linked satellite-derived measures of built-environment change (GHSL), population crowding (WorldPop), surface water exposure (JRC Global Surface Water), and infrastructure proxies (VIIRS/DMSP nighttime lights) to GBD 2021 drowning mortality estimates across 203 ADM1 regions in 12 countries (2006-2021; 3,248 region-year observations). Temporal predictors captured recent expansion, development "newness" ([&le;]10-year built share), acceleration/volatility, and a crowdingxgrowth interaction. We screened predictors using LASSO (10-fold cross-validation) and fitted mixed-effects models with region random intercepts. Distributed-lag models tested temporal precedence and development age, and income-stratified models assessed heterogeneity. ResultsAdding temporal predictors improved fit beyond contemporaneous built-environment measures ({Delta}AIC=177; {Delta}BIC=147). In adjusted models, crowdingxgrowth was strongly positively associated with drowning mortality, and a higher share of recent development was associated with higher mortality. Lag models showed a development age gradient: older built environment was most protective. Associations differed by income group, with several key coefficients reversing sign across strata. DiscussionDrowning mortality appears shaped by development histories as well as present-day conditions, with risk concentrated in rapidly changing, dense settings and the newest built environments. Cross-context heterogeneity suggests mechanisms and prevention priorities are unlikely to be uniform. ConclusionsDevelopment timing and trajectories help explain subnational drowning mortality beyond current built form alone. Prevention and planning should prioritise transition-period safety strategies in newly developing and rapidly densifying areas.

10
Individual-and Community-Level Determinants of Zero-Dose Children in Nigeria: A Multilevel Analysis using the 2024 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey

Mitiku, D. k.; Gessesse, A. D.; Derse, T. K.; Lidetu, T. k.; Asgai, A. S.; Kelkay, J. M.

2026-04-20 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.18.26351159 medRxiv
Top 1%
1.0%
Show abstract

BackgroundZero-dose children, defined as those who have not received the first dose of a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DPT1), are a key indicator of inequitable access to immunization services. Nigeria remains one of the largest contributors to the global burden of zero-dose children. This study estimated the prevalence of zero-dose children aged 12-23 months and identified individual-and community-level determinants using the 2024 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey (NDHS). MethodsA secondary analysis of cross-sectional analysis was conducted using data from 4,711 children aged 12-23 months in the 2024 NDHS kids recode dataset. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model was fitted to account for the hierarchical structure of the data. Four models were compared: null, individual-level, community-level, and combined models. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to identify significant determinants at p<0.05. ResultsThe weighted prevalence of zero-dose children was 37.3% (95% CI: 35.1-39.6%). Significant factors included birth order, maternal age, maternal occupation, parental education, household wealth, antenatal attendance, postnatal care utilization, place of delivery, religion, distance to health facilities, and geographical region. Children whose mothers had higher educational attainment, attending antenatal care, deliver in the health facilities, and received postnatal care were significantly less likely to be zero-dose status. Conversely, children from poorer households, those facing distance barriers to health facilities, those belongings to Muslim and traditional religion group and those residing in certain geographical regions had higher odds of zero-dose children, with significant regional variations observed. Conclusionzero-dose vaccination remains highly prevalent in Nigeria and is strongly influenced by socioeconomic disadvantage, maternal healthcare utilization, religion, and regional inequities. Strengthening integrated maternal and child health services and improving access in underserved regions are essential to achieving equitable vaccination coverage.

11
Exploring the association of subnational drowning mortality and environmental exposures: A global analysis using satellite-derived data

Essex, R.; Lim, S.; Jagnoor, J.

2026-04-21 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.19.26351234 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.9%
Show abstract

IntroductionDrowning risk begins with water exposure, yet population-water relationships have rarely been quantified at scale using environmental measures. This study explored whether satellite-derived data was associated with subnational drowning mortality and whether associations differed by country income level. MethodsWe linked Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) age-standardised drowning mortality rates to satellite-derived exposures for 212 subnational regions across 12 countries (2006-2021; 3,392 region-years). Exposures were extracted via Google Earth Engine and standardised. Gamma-log generalised linear mixed models included region random intercepts and year fixed effects. Income-stratified models were estimated separately. Supplementary models assessed maritime vessel activity. ResultsNear-water population percentage was the strongest correlate of drowning (IRR 1.40; 95% CI 1.33-1.47). Permanent water coverage was protective (IRR 0.80; 0.73-0.88), as were nighttime lights (IRR 0.96; 0.95-0.97) and hot days [&ge;]30{degrees}C (IRR 0.95; 0.92-0.99). Mean temperature (IRR 1.17; 1.11-1.23) and precipitation (IRR 1.03; 1.01-1.04) were positively associated. Near-water effects were consistent across income strata (LIC 1.25; MIC 1.31; HIC 1.24), while other predictors showed weak or inconsistent within-strata associations. Vessel activity was modestly associated with drowning in Global Fishing Watch models (IRR 1.05; 1.01-1.09) but not in Synthetic Aperture Radar models. DiscussionSatellite-derived indicators can characterise drowning risk at scale, with population proximity to water emerging as a robust cross-context correlate. Protective associations for permanent water suggest landscape configuration may shape risk beyond proximity alone, highlighting geospatial datas value for targeting prevention where surveillance is limited.

12
Determinants of Skilled Birth Attendance in Nigeria: A Population-Based Analysis of the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey

Unegbu, U. L.

2026-04-23 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26350432 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.8%
Show abstract

Background: Nigeria bears one of the highest maternal mortality burdens globally, with skilled birth attendance (SBA) remaining critically low in many regions. Understanding the independent determinants of SBA is essential for designing targeted interventions. Methods: This cross sectional study analyzed 21,465 births from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), a nationally representative household survey using stratified two stage cluster sampling. SBA was defined as delivery attended by a doctor, nurse, midwife, or auxiliary midwife. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals for the associations between SBA and maternal education, household wealth, place of residence, geopolitical region, maternal age, parity, and antenatal care (ANC) utilization, after accounting for confounding. Results: The overall prevalence of SBA was 44.9%. In the fully adjusted model, higher education (aOR = 7.01, 95% CI: 5.68-8.67), richest wealth quintile (aOR = 6.27, 95% CI: 5.27-7.46), and attending [&ge;]4 ANC visits (aOR = 3.80, 95% CI: 3.51-4.11) were the strongest independent predictors of SBA. Regional inequalities were pronounced, with SBA prevalence ranging from 17.7% in the North West to 85.6% in the South West. Crude effect estimates for education and wealth were substantially attenuated after adjustment, indicating large confounding by correlated socioeconomic factors. Conclusions: Maternal education, household wealth, ANC utilization, and geopolitical region are independent determinants of SBA in Nigeria. Scaling up ANC programs represents the most immediately actionable intervention, while long term gains require investment in girls' education and wealth equity. Targeted strategies for the northern regions are urgently needed. Keywords: skilled birth attendance, maternal mortality, Nigeria, DHS, antenatal care, logistic regression, health equity

13
Trends and epidemiological profile of preventable hospitalizations in Honduras (2014 - 2024): An 11-year analysis of ambulatory care sensitive conditions

Alfaro, H. E.; Lara-Arevalo, J.

2026-04-24 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351522 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.8%
Show abstract

Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs) are conditions for which effective and timely primary health care (PHC) can prevent hospitalizations. They are widely used as a proxy indicator of access to and quality of PHC. Despite their relevance, evidence from Central America remains scarce. This study aimed to quantify the burden, describe the epidemiological profile, and assess temporal trends of ACSCs hospitalizations in Honduras from 2014 to 2024. We conducted a retrospective observational study using national administrative hospital discharge data from all Ministry of Health hospitals. ACSCs were defined using a standardized list of 20 diagnostic groups based on ICD-10 codes. We estimated percentages and sex-age-standardized hospitalization rates per 10,000 inhabitants. Clinical indicators included length of stay (LOS) and in-hospital fatality rates. Temporal trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression models to estimate annual percent changes (APC). Analyses included stratification by age, sex, and disease category. A total of 4,023,944 hospitalizations were analyzed, of which 547,486 (13.6%) were classified as ACSCs. The overall sex-age-standardized rate was 54.1 per 10,000 inhabitants. ACSCs' standardized rates increased between 2014 and 2018 (APC: 2.7%; 95% CI: -2.4; 15.2), declined sharply between 2018 and 2021 (APC: -17.8%; 95% CI: -30.6; -10.3), and increased again between 2021 and 2024 (APC: 15.9%; 95% CI: 4.6; 37.6). Despite this rebound, rates remained below pre-pandemic levels. ACSCs were concentrated among children under 5 years (27.7%) and adults aged 60 years and older (29.9%). Noncommunicable diseases accounted for 56.8% of cases, with diabetes mellitus as the leading cause. Compared with non-ACSCs hospitalizations, ACSCs were associated with longer LOS (4.9 vs. 3.9 days; p <0.001) and higher in-hospital fatality rates (2.4% vs. 1.7%; p <0.001). ACSCs hospitalizations constitute a substantial burden in Honduras and reflect persistent gaps in PHC performance. Strengthening PHC resilience and capacity, particularly for chronic disease management and vulnerable populations, is essential to reduce avoidable hospitalizations and improve health system efficiency and equity.

14
On the robustness of ethnic and socio-cultural determinants of healthcare decision-making autonomy among Hausa, Fulani, and Kanuri women in Northern Nigeria.

OGUNETIMOJU, A. M.; AJEBORIOGBON, S. A.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351355 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.8%
Show abstract

BackgroundWomens autonomy in healthcare decision-making has become one of the most critical yet inequitably distributed determinants of health outcomes, gender equity, and sustainable development worldwide. In Northern Nigeria, the presence of ethnic and socio-cultural inequality is frequently concealed by the aggregated statistics of a region. MethodsThis cross-sectional secondary analysis utilized the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The sample included 9,998 married women (15-49 years) identifying as Hausa, Fulani, or Kanuri in Northern Nigeria. Healthcare autonomy was categorized as husband/partner alone, respondent alone, or joint decision-making. Analysis included weighted descriptive statistics, Rao-Scott adjusted chi-square tests for residential associations, and complex sample multinomial logistic regression to identify multivariable correlates while adjusting for sampling weights, strata, and clusters. ResultsMean age was 30.38 years. Most participants lacked formal education (69.6%) and resided in rural areas (72.0%). Husband-only decision-making predominated (72.6%), while 22.5% reported joint and 4.9% independent autonomy. Joint decision-making was significantly higher in urban (33.3%) than rural areas (18.3%; Adjusted F=50.892, p<0.001). In adjusted models (Reference: Kanuri), Hausa and Fulani women had substantially lower odds of joint decision-making relative to husband-only outcomes. Rural residence correlated with lower odds of both independent and joint agency. Notably, wealth status was not a significant predictor after adjustment (p > 0.05). ConclusionsEthnicity and residence are robust determinants of healthcare autonomy among women in Northern Nigeria, persisting regardless of education or wealth. This "socio-cultural paradox" suggests that economic interventions alone are insufficient. Policies must complement socioeconomic approaches with culturally responsive strategies addressing household power dynamics and entrenched social norms.

15
Epidemiological Patterns and Characteristics of Animal Bite Cases in Sylhet, Bangladesh: A Retrospective Study of 6,565 Cases

Hossain, H.; Mohiuddin, A. S. M.; Islam, S.; Insan, M.; Ahmed, S.; Brishty, K. A.; Parvej, M.; Yadav, S. K.; Ahmed, S.; Das, S. R.; Rahman, M. M.; Rahman, M. M.; Paul, B.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351359 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.7%
Show abstract

BackgroundAnimal bites represent a significant public health concern due to the risk of injuries and transmission of zoonotic diseases such as Rabies, particularly in low and lower- middle-income countries (LMICs). Understanding the epidemiological characteristics of animal bite incidents is essential for improving the prevention and control strategies. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological patterns and characteristics of animal bite cases in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Methodology/Principal findingsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of 6,565 animal bite cases reported between January 1 and December 31, 2024, in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Data on demographic characteristics, type of biting animal, site of bite, and exposure category were collected and analyzed to determine associations using correlation analyses and chi-square tests. Among the victims, 3,917 (60%) were male and 2,648 (40%) were female and young adults aged 20-39 years comprised the largest group (39% of cases). The majority of cases (88.1%) originated from urban areas within Sylhet City Corporation. Cats were the leading cause of bites (56.6%), followed by dogs (35.0%) and monkeys (7.5%), suggesting a shift from the traditional dog-dominated pattern. The most frequently affected anatomical sites were the legs (50.3%) and hands (40.9%). Most exposures were classified as World Health Organization (WHO) Category II (98.2%). Bite incidents showed moderate seasonal variation, with peaks in spring and early autumn. A significant declining temporal trend was observed for monkey bites (R = -0.59, p = 0.044), whereas cat and dog bite patterns remained relatively stable throughout the year. Significant associations were identified between bite site and age group, as well as between biting animal and demographic characteristics (p < 0.05). Conclusion/SignificanceThese findings highlight the epidemiological patterns of animal bites in Sylhet and emphasize the need for strengthened public awareness, surveillance, and preventive strategies to reduce animal bite incidents and associated zoonotic disease risks. SynnopsisO_LIA large-scale retrospective analysis of 6,565 animal bite cases revealed a cat-dominant bite pattern (56.6%), contrasting with the traditional dog-dominant paradigm in South Asia. C_LIO_LIYoung adults (20-39 years) and males (60%) were disproportionately affected, reflecting occupational and behavioral exposure risks. C_LIO_LIUrban residents (88.1%) accounted for the majority of cases, highlighting the growing public health burden of animal bites in rapidly urbanizing settings. C_LIO_LIThe most frequently affected anatomical sites were the legs (50.3%) and hands (40.9%). Bite incidents showed moderate seasonal variation, with peaks in spring and early autumn. C_LIO_LICategory II exposures (98.2%) predominated, indicating a high burden of seemingly minor injuries that may be underestimated in rabies prevention strategies. C_LI

16
A rights-based intervention integrating social work and ophthalmic care for people experiencing or at risk of homelessness

Hassani, A.; Pecar, K.; Soliman, M.; Bunyon, P.; Ellinger, C.; Tulysewskid, G.; Croft, J.; Carillo, C.; Wewegama, G.; du Plessis-Schneider, S.; Estevez, J. J.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351525 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.5%
Show abstract

Background Individuals experiencing or at risk of homelessness face substantial barriers to preventive eye care that are poorly addressed by standard service models. Interdisciplinary optometry-social work collaboration offers a rights-based approach to improving engagement and continuity of care. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study was conducted between February and August 2024 at a multidisciplinary community centre. Clients experiencing or at risk of homelessness received integrated optometry and social work assessment and were prioritised as high, medium, or low based on combined clinical and social risk. Social work follow-up was guided by the Triple Mandate and W-Questions framework. Quantitative data were summarised using mean (SD), median [IQR], or n (%). Qualitative case notes were analysed using content analysis with inductive coding and secondary review for consistency. Results A total of 165 clients had priority categories coded (high: 68; medium: 47; low: 154). Demographic data were available for 132 clients (60% male; mean age 49.5 years [SD 16]); 27% had not completed high school, 89% reported weekly income below AUD 1000, and 28% had vision impairment. Two hundred forty-five case-note entries were consolidated into 146 unique records. SMS (46%) and phone calls (38%) were the most documented contact methods, although only 21% of calls were answered; missed calls (13%) and disconnected numbers (7%) were common. Multi-modal contact was more frequently documented for higher-priority clients. Appointment assistance was the most recorded facilitator (71%), while rights-based supports, including interpreter and transport assistance, were infrequently documented (<=5%). Qualitative analysis identified unstable communication, reliance on informal supports, and service fragmentation as key influences on recall outcomes. Conclusion This study supports an interdisciplinary, rights-based optometry-social work model to address barriers to preventive eye care among people experiencing or at risk of homelessness. Embedding structured handovers and tiered recall processes within community-based services may strengthen continuity and accountability for high-priority clients. Future implementation should evaluate outcomes related to equity of reach, service integration, and sustained engagement in care.

17
Sociodemographic determinants of maternal health indicators in conflict-affected counties of Kenya: secondary analysis of data from the 2022 Kenya demographic and health survey

Wandji Djouonang, B.; Olungah, C. O.; Atsali, E.; Kihara, A.-B.; Omanwa, K.; Obimbo, M. M.; Ogengo, J.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351520 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.5%
Show abstract

Objective To analyse sociodemographic determinants of maternal health indicators in Kenyas conflict-affected regions. Methods A cross-sectional secondary analysis of the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) was conducted. Conflict-affected counties were identified using ACLED (>25 fatalities). The sample included 1,060 women aged 15-49 years. Outcomes were adequate antenatal care (ANC 4+), facility delivery, and skilled birth attendance (SBA). Predictors included age, education, wealth, employment, residence, and county; intimate partner violence was adjusted for. Weighted descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and multivariable logistic regression were applied (p<0.05). Results Six counties met conflict criteria. While 90.2% of women attended at least one ANC visit, only 53.5% achieved ANC 4+. Facility delivery and SBA were 68.2% and 72.2%, respectively. Adolescents (15-19) were least likely to attain adequate ANC; women aged 20-24 had higher odds (aOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.01-3.34). Education strongly predicted outcomes: higher education increased ANC 4+ (aOR=2.74; 95% CI: 1.19-6.34) and facility delivery (aOR=2.72; 95% CI: 1.15-6.47). Wealth showed strong gradients: middle quintile increased facility delivery (aOR=5.50; 95% CI: 2.14-14.14), while richer quintile increased SBA (aOR=11.04; 95% CI: 2.06-59.25). Rural residence reduced facility delivery (aOR=0.32) and SBA (aOR=0.22). County disparities persisted. IPV was not independently associated. Conclusion Maternal health indicators in conflict-affected Kenya follow a marked inequity gradient. Adolescents, rural residents, and socioeconomically disadvantaged women are most excluded. Strengthening adolescent ANC continuity, reducing rural access barriers, and investing in education and economic empowerment are critical for improving outcomes.

18
Stakeholder-engagement on assessment of implementation considerations for food-policy interventions for prevention of overweight and obesity in Kenya and evaluation of the engagement process

Wanjau, M. N.; Mecca, L.; Opiyo, R. O.; Mounsey, S.; Mwangi, K. J.; Veerman, L.; Kivuti-Bitok, L. W.

2026-04-20 health policy 10.64898/2026.04.18.26351190 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.5%
Show abstract

IntroductionIncreasing global prevalence of overweight and obesity underscores the need for context-specific evidence to guide preventive policy implementation. Previous modelling showed that promoting healthy indigenous foods, implementing a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and introducing mandatory kilojoule menu labelling in formal-sector restaurants in Kenya were health-promoting, cost-saving, and cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness evidence is strengthened when considered alongside broader policy implementation considerations. We engaged stakeholders to assess additional implementation considerations relevant to decision-makers and to evaluate the stakeholder engagement process used in the modelling study. MethodsUsing the Assessing Cost-Effectiveness approach, we conducted a stakeholder-engaged study with national-level Kenya stakeholders recruited through purposive and snowball sampling. Through deliberative dialogue at a hybrid workshop, stakeholders assessed implementation considerations such as equity, feasibility and sustainability using a colour-coded scoring tool. We evaluated the engagement process using an anonymous survey covering seven stakeholder-engaged research domains. We analysed responses thematically. ResultsAcross the three interventions, most implementation considerations for feasibility, reach and impact, affordability, acceptability, and sustainability were assessed as medium or high. Industry acceptability of kilojoule labelling and SSB tax and affordability of kilojoule labelling to industry were rated low. Equity scores varied. Stakeholders proposed complementary measures that could raise low ratings to favorable scores. Clarity on stakeholder roles was identified as a key strength of the engagement process, while competing time commitments limited participation. ConclusionStakeholder insights contextualise prior cost-effectiveness evidence within policy-relevant implementation considerations and inform current fiscal and regulatory debates. Evaluation of the stakeholder engagement process underscores its contribution to strengthening public health research.

19
Operationalisation of the African Medicines Agency: Retrospective evaluation of the continental centralised pilot procedure - timelines to recommendation and national registration decisions

ISMAIL, A. J.; MOETI, L.; DARKO, D. M.; WALKER, S.; SALEK, S.

2026-04-24 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351547 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.4%
Show abstract

Background Regulatory inconsistency across African countries contributes to duplicative scientific assessments, prolonged approval timelines, and delayed access to essential medical products. To inform the operationalisation of the African Medicines Agency (AMA), the African Medicines Regulatory Harmonisation (AMRH) programme implemented Africa's first continental pilot study for the scientific evaluation and listing of human medicinal products. This study evaluates the pilot's procedural performance and examines how continental scientific opinions were translated into national regulatory decisions through reliance mechanisms. Methods and Findings A mixed-methods programme evaluation was conducted using regulatory datasets generated during the pilot study. Quantitative data included assessment timelines, GMP inspection outcomes and national post-listing regulatory actions. Retrospective qualitative thematic analysis was applied to governance documents and National Regulatory Authority (NRA) feedback to identify legal, institutional and procedural determinants influencing uptake. Of 64 expressions of interest, 24 products progressed to full evaluation and 12 received positive continental scientific opinions. Ten met the predefined performance target of [&le;]210 working days. Twenty-four GMP inspections identified no critical deficiencies and aligned with global regulatory benchmarks. National uptake demonstrated active reliance: full reliance (continental opinion as primary basis for national approval) for 7 products (58%); sequential reliance (continental assessment supplemented with targeted national queries) for 3 products (25%); and supplemented national review (separate national assessment undertaken) for 2 products (17%). Products with broader market strategies achieved registration in up to 23 African countries within a median of 77 working days post-listing. Variability in uptake reflected national legal authority, administrative requirements, and applicant submission strategies Conclusions The pilot study demonstrates the feasibility of a continent-wide regulatory assessment mechanism capable of producing trusted scientific outputs and enabling reliance-based national decision-making in Africa. While reliance was widely applied, heterogeneity in national procedures and administrative sequencing affected time to national registration. Findings provide empirical evidence to inform the AMA scale-up, highlighting the need for harmonised reliance pathways, streamlined administrative processes, and coordinated digital regulatory infrastructure.

20
Patterns and Predictors of Dropout in Maternal Continuum of Care: A Comprehensive Analysis in Bangladesh

Priyanka, S. S.; Sujon, M. S. H.; Farzana, A.; Dasgupta, D. P.; Bhuyan, G. S.; Ali, N. B.

2026-04-22 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351272 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.3%
Show abstract

Dropout from essential maternal health services across pregnancy, childbirth, and the postnatal period remains a major barrier to improving maternal and neonatal outcomes in Bangladesh. This study examined stage-specific dropout patterns along the maternal continuum of care and identified factors associated with discontinuation. We analysed nationally representative data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2022 for 5,162 women with a recent live birth. Dropout from antenatal care, skilled birth attendance, and postnatal care was examined using multivariable logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with comparisons to BDHS 2017-18 and assessment of regional variation. Only 44% of women received four or more antenatal care visits. Of these, 33% delivered with a skilled birth attendant, and among those receiving both antenatal care and skilled delivery, only 15% received postnatal care within 48 hours. Overall, 57% dropped out before completing adequate antenatal care, with additional dropouts between antenatal care and delivery (10%) and between delivery and postnatal care (18%). Compared with 2017-18, overall dropout from the maternal continuum of care more than doubled in 2022 (5.0% to 11.7%), driven by increased antenatal care dropout, while skilled birth attendance dropout declined and postnatal care dropout increased slightly. Higher maternal education, household wealth, media exposure, and womens decision-making power were consistently associated with lower odds of dropout, whereas higher birth order increased dropout risk. Substantial regional variation was observed, with the highest overall dropout in Sylhet and the lowest in Khulna. High dropout from the maternal continuum of care in Bangladesh occurs predominantly at the antenatal care stage and is shaped by socioeconomic status, birth order, womens access to information, and regional disparities. Strengthening early antenatal engagement and womens decision-making autonomy is critical to improving continuity of maternal care and reducing preventable maternal and neonatal risks.